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Gov. Tim Pawlenty

Should Gov. Tim Pawlenty skip the Iowa caucuses? Yes, it’s ridiculously early to be contemplating such questions about the 2012 presidential campaign. But The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder raises that question in a post today. He notes that only candidates with strong Christian conservative bona fides will have a chance in the caucuses, meaning that Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee are the prohibitive favorites (and Mitt the Mormon doesn’t have a chance in hell).

Ambinder essentially lumps Pawlenty in with Romney in weighing whether he should skip the caucuses and head straight to New Hampshire:

Pawlenty’s main strategic challenge would be New Hampshire — figuring out how to defeat the Romney machine there. It might not be hard; since there won’t be a Democratic primary, as many as 60,000 independents could decide to vote Republican. Appealing to these independents on economic issues — and comforting them on social issues — is the test.

But Ambinder might be underestimating Pawlenty’s appeal to Christian conservatives in Iowa. As noted in this piece by Andy Birkey, Pawlenty is an evangelical Christian and attends Wooddale Church in Eden Prairie. The pastor of Wooddale is Leith Anderson, who just happens to be the president of the National Association of Evangelicals. That organization represents 45,000 churches and roughly 30 million evangelical Christians across the country. Those ties, along with the fact that Pawlenty has served two terms as governor of a neighboring state, might make him a formidable opponent in the Iowa caucuses.