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The political-numbers-geek website FiveThirtyEight.com was on the money with predictions about the outcome of the 2008 presidential race and Minnesota’s U.S. Senate recount. So cut ‘em some slack for saying Tim Pawlenty is the man to beat in the 2010 Minnesota governor’s race. Everyone learns from mistakes — and in this case, we learn how the race might look had Pawlenty stayed in it.

Here’s the glimpse into an alternate political universe, courtesy FiveThirtyEight’s Tom Schaller:

The most compelling race may be in Minnesota, however, where Tim Pawlenty won narrowly four years ago and might be distracted by presidential politics. Losing re-election would scotch any White House ambitions he has, making him a ripe target for the Democratic Governors Association. And that made me think that maybe — just maybe — Sarah Palin knew what she was doing by getting herself safely out of the way of anti-incumbent fury that may dominate the 2010 cycle.

The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza shakes us out of that daydream:

Norm Coleman (R) isn’t expected to make a decision on the 2010 governor’s race until next year but a new Rasmussen poll suggests the former senator has plenty of time to make his decision. Coleman led the Republican field with 50 percent while state Rep. Marty Seifert at 11 percent was the only other potential candidate to break double digits. Coleman’s lead is almost entirely attributable to name identification gained from his time as mayor of St. Paul and his six years in the Senate but it does suggest that if he decides to run, he will be a clear favorite. On the Democratic side, former Sen. Mark Dayton and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak each received 30 percent of the vote while none of the other candidates scored in double digits. Coleman would give Republicans a chance to hold this seat, which is being vacated by Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) after two terms. But, if Coleman takes a pass this race looks extremely difficult for any other GOP candidate given Minnesota’s Democratic tilt.